Scenario Planning: An Approach for Turbulent Times
Why Traditional Strategic Planning Won’t Cut It
Today, leaders of mission-driven organizations are contending with a regime that produces confusion, indecision, and anxiety at society-wide scale. Rather than giving in to generalized worries, leaders must illuminate pathways for their staff, partners, and customers, showing there are concrete steps that we can take in response to specific threats.
Traditional strategic planning assumes a high level of agency by the organization doing the planning. This includes an ability to set goals, and interim objectives and activities tied to those goals, over a multi-year time horizon, defined in such a way that the organization is the first mover and biggest factor in whether those activities, objectives, and goals come to fruition.
In these times, no organization can assume such agency. While remaining crystal-clear on their mission and values, all organizations must plot multiple paths to advancing their mission and preserving their values.
Scenario planning is an approach that helps leaders identify potential futures, develop robust strategies, and build adaptability into your organization. Scenario planning, by connecting the present to different futures, prompts deeper reflection about what steps taken now might result in more equitable futures.
What You'll Gain from Scenario Planning
Expanded thinking about possible futures
Greater organizational agility and resilience
Clearer early warning indicators for critical shifts
More confident decision-making amid uncertainty
Practical contingency plans for various scenarios
The Ways I Provide Scenario Planning
Virtual engagement: Over four, one hour sessions, your leadership team will explore one or more “focal issues” that drive concern in your organization. You’ll leave with concrete action plans related to each issue, a new understanding of the different players who may shape the future, and a more shared, cohesive sense of the challenges you face.
In-person retreat: Throughout a one-day retreat, your team will walk through the scenario-planning process for two or more focal issues. You’ll also experience opportunities to learn from case studies that will increase your team’s cohesion and trust as you face new challenges.
Customized: I have delivered scenario planning exercises in a variety of formats, for a variety of audiences. I’m happy to adapt to your needs.
Key Resource & Next Steps
Adapted from the 4 Steps to the Future and Today for Tomorrow models of scenario-planning, I have developed this tool for leaders of mission-driven organizations. Contact me at thomas@showalterstrategies.com to learn more about applying the lens of scenario planning to your toughest challenges.